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Spate prediction explained

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This article describes how we forecast trend performance.

 

Our algorithm predicts whether:

1. a trend will rise or decline in the next 12 months

2. associates a level of risk to each prediction

 

Rising trends

 

Rising trends are trends we predict will continue to grow in the next 12 months. We add prediction labels according to the following definitions:

• Very confident - more than 90% confident that this trend will keep rising

• Confident - more than 70% confident that this trend will keep rising

• Risky - more than 50% confident that this trend will keep rising

 

Declining trends

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Declining trends are trends we predict will continue to decline in the next 12 months. We add prediction labels according to the following definitions:

• Very confident - more than 90% confident that this trend will keep declining

• Confident - more than 70% confident that this trend will keep declining

• Risky - more than 50% confident that this trend will keep declining

 

Frequently asked questions

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• How confident are your predictions?

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Currently, our predictive algorithm gets it right 70% of the time for 12 months prediction. We are constantly improving our methodology to take this number up.

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